World Peace: Back Story on the Paper Presented at IAMOT 2021
I presented the paper “Simulations of Necessary Conditions of World Peace Leveraging a Quaternary-Based, Quintuple-Layered Complex Adaptive Systems Model” at IAMOT 2021 held at Nile University in Egypt, only a few days ago.
This post contains the backstory that led to this paper which also explains why I dedicated this paper to the late Tony Hsieh, extracts from the paper itself so that the reader can get a sense of the approach I have proposed, and a backup youtube presentation I had created before my actual live online presentation on September 22nd in case I had connection issues. Note that this paper will be Scopus Indexed, but will take some time to reflect on the Scopus site.
Back Story
In the Summer of 2020 Tony Hsieh invited me to Park City to discuss how we could continue to work together. We had first met in 2017 and I have shared some of our interactions in the piece “Some Mathematical Encounters with an Exceptional CEO”. I ended up making three visits to Park City that Summer and the two project areas we spoke about included Light, a passion of mine, and also World Peace, something he was gaining increasing interest in.
Note that on my second visit to Park City he actually subjected me to part-one of what I consider to be the most rigorous interview process I have ever been through.
I was having dinner with some friends on the second floor of a large Mexican restaurant. At about 10:30 pm we finished and descended the stairs to make our exit. All of a sudden I heard someone calling me. It was Tony and he was with a group of about 12 people on another table. “Pravir, can you come here please. We are working on a problem and I would like your help with it.” I walked over and he explained that there was another group on the table working on the same problem. He wanted me to compete against them and come up with a better solution before midnight. In the meanwhile, someone else shouted across the table, “Consider this your job interview”.
He wanted me to compete against them and come up with a better solution before midnight.
I sat down and accepted the challenge and Tony asked me what I would like were I to win against the other group. I stated the prize and he went on to explain what he wanted solved. Long story short, I had to share my thinking process aloud, often to the rebuttals of those present but mainly to the rebuttals of Tony, that I had to quickly counter. I ended up proposing a solution by going deep into first principles to do with the placement of atoms in the Periodic Table that gradually gained acceptance amongst those present. I would say it was about 11:30pm at the time, and Tony then acknowledged that he accepted the solution!
But the “interview” process was not yet over. On my next visit to Park City, a few weeks later, he let me know that he was starting a TED-like talk series, and he wanted me to be the first speaker to a live audience. By the way, he gave me about two hours' notice and wanted me to speak about a Cosmology of Light (I have written 10 mathematical books and a number of technical IEEE and other journal articles on the subject ), but have it expressed so that everyone would understand me!
The next morning when we met for breakfast he let me know that he liked my talk and asked me to explain parts of it to some others present.
It is only after that we talked about specifics of project work, and he suggested that he would like me to be Chief Advisor to a project on World Peace that he had in mind. Instead, I ended up focusing on project work to do with Light, but I used the work on Light to also try to shape a narrative on World Peace. I did this initially by altering my planned flow of Cosmology of Light musings (see musings #25 to #40) so that it would build-up to what may be required to achieve World Peace.
But then I also decided to simulate the multiple layers that I saw as instrumental in creating World Peace and ended up writing the paper “Simulations of Necessary Conditions of World Peace Leveraging a Quaternary-Based, Quintuple-Layered Complex Adaptive Systems Model” which was accepted at the conference I just presented at last week.
Extracts from the IAMOT 2021 World Peace Paper
To give the reader a better idea of some aspects of how I approach the building of World Peace I include extracts from the published paper:
Abstract
“The creation of World Peace is clearly a formidable task and if we were to frame the task in terms of complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory, we could take a quaternary-based, quintuple-layered CAS as a starting point. The quaternary-basis highlights four organizational principles — knowledge, power, service, harmony — found in CAS in general. The five layers are comprised of the foundational living cell layer, the nature-based ecosystem services layer, the human dynamics layer, the layer of culture due to human dynamics which also influences all human-based organizations, and the layer of countries or nations that typically develops along some unique national genius. This paper will explore a simulation for World Peace based on the influence of the four organizational principles on each of the five interacting layers. The simulation will be based on the modeled aggregate interaction between distributed, autonomous, independent agents typical to each of the five layers under consideration. In such a framing the primary layer is due to human dynamics driven by choice. This is so because the vicissitudes of human choice when based on short-sightedness so that the possibilities inherent in the four organizational principles are subdued, can easily set up a number of destructive feedback loops with adjacent layers. Such destructive loops can chip away at the integrity of the other layers and compromise any hope of World Peace. Conversely, human choice based on longer-term thinking leveraging the four organizational principles more fully can create necessary conditions for World Peace. The simulation will identify necessary conditions for achieving World Peace, taking into account the range of complexities that can arise due to manifold human choice and its impact on each of the five layers. The simulation will show that World Peace can continue to increase significantly over an extended time frame so long as all four bases are allowed to propagate forward in an organized way to impact each of the quintuple layers within the overall system.”
Salient Features of the Model
“T”he model of World Peace presented in this paper is based on the following salient features:
1. A quintuple layered system comprising of the living-cell layers, the ecosystem-services layer, the human dynamics layer, the cultural layer, and the country-level layer.
2. The human-dynamics layer is modeled as being the instrumental causal layer setting into motion dynamics across other layers. This causality is set into motion by manipulating sliders for each of the four organizational principles.
3. The four organizational principles of knowledge, power, presence, and harmony are based on research of drivers of sustainability in complex adaptive systems across multiple layers of granularity.
4. Negative values for these drivers imply the opposite of knowledge, power, presence, and harmony. Positive values imply that many useful aspects of knowledge, or power, or presence and service, or harmony are in play.
5. An additional source of development is captured in the forward integrity of the fourfold organizational principles affecting operations at each of the other layers in the quintuple-layered system.
6. Sources of volatility exist at three levels. The first is a baseline level of volatility that will tend to propagate variations of the status quo from one time period to the next. The second is a level of volatility injected into different regions of the world. The third is general global volatility.”
The Five Layers
“CAS generally are modeled as single layers, but with many independent agents existing in that layer. This simulation, however, is based on five interacting layers that all influence one another. The five layers are the foundational living cell layer, the nature-based ecosystem services layer, the human dynamics layer, the layer of culture due to human dynamics which also influences all human-based organizations, and the layer of countries or nations that typically develop along some unique national genius.
The foundational fourfold living-cell layer that has naturally emerged through billions of years of evolution and is programmed with sophisticated defense mechanisms to counter a vast range of negative circumstances, can get compromised due to lifestyle choices, become progressively acidic, and trigger irregular cell behavior or even cell death. But this is by no means inevitable.
Note that in this simulation the lifestyle choices, are modeled to be a function of the positive effects of the four organizational principles of knowledge, power, service, and harmony. The higher these values, ranging from ‘-10’ to ‘+10’ respectively, the more positive are deemed to the lifestyle choices.
Positive lifestyle choices will therefore set up a constructive feedback loop between the layer of foundational living cells and the human-layer can be put into place, and rather than weakness being the outcome of human action, strength, flexibility, resilience can become the natural outcome. If humans were to go this route, then a different kind of natural adaptation at the cellular level would mean that negative environmental influences, whether due to electromagnetic or chemical pollution, or due to unexpected strains of viruses, amongst other perceived negative possibilities, could lose their debilitating power, and this would set in place a necessary condition to enable personal peace, that is itself a necessary condition for World Peace.
Similarly, with the right lifestyle choices, different feedback loops would exist between natural environments and humans, and instead of destroying the very ecosystem services our lives depend on — ranging from water and air purification; food and raw materials generation; construction of genetic resources, biogenic materials, and medicinal resources; creation of energy, climate regulation, and carbon sequestration; waste decomposition and regulation; disease control; amongst many other such services — these would thrive and also create a necessary condition for World Peace.
Such ecosystem services also create rich work possibilities and can become a more deliberate and important part of industry in all parts of the world, enabling global economic life in a holistic way driven by the wiser rhythms of Nature. Instead, we have lost balance, and now often strip down the wealth of forests, and in a sleight of accounting think we have grown richer by equating the weight of the deadwood to money.
This brings us to the often-destructive feedback loops involving culture, whether at the corporate, social, economic, or political areas, also due to short-sighted and often destructive lifestyle choices. If instead, we allowed the richness of the fourfold organizational principles to continue to manifest, then balanced environments driven by knowledge power, service, and harmony, would create richer cultural realities.
Knowledge perhaps would manifest as a seeking for deeper truths, a mindset of seeing things from multiple points of view, an essential drive toward a synthesis of possibilities. Power perhaps would manifest as a sense of adventure, of energetically driving toward new possibilities, of leadership, courage, of an innate sense of justice always protecting that or those who are weaker. Service would awaken a sense in which no endeavor is ever thought of as impossible, where there is a dedication to the task at hand, a deep sense of humility, persistence, attention to detail, of losing of one’s personal desire in the work to be done, of having no expectation of reward, amongst other possibilities. Harmony would engender recognition that many parts need to come together in work, deeper respect for others based on who they are and not who you want them to be, and a sense that obstacles are opportunities to further ground the potential in Light, amongst other possibilities.
The reinforcing loop between this layer of culture and the human would create environments where sustainability is reinforced, thereby also creating a necessary condition for World Peace.
The fifth layer has to do with the development of civilization so that countries and global regions are allowed to be unique and in such a way that their primary emergence contributes to a collective distribution across all four essential sources of innovation deriving from the four organizational principles.
Today’s set of feedback loops emanating from a fossilized view of possibility at the level instead sets in place the contrary and forces regions of the world to “develop” along certain lines only. Invoking innovation from each of the four organizational principles would mean that based on emergent uniqueness, there must be open and healthy interaction amongst national or regional centers of uniqueness. Practically this means that one single point of view, no matter how it may have benefitted a single country, can never become the sole blueprint for sustainable global development. Countries and regions of the world will have to follow their own genius. This would put in place another necessary condition for World Peace.
The dynamics of complex adaptive systems are such that even small parts can have a profound influence on systemic reality as a whole. Individuals, consistently living from higher possibilities architected by the full range implicit in the four organizational principles, can become the drivers of extraordinary change and usher in the reality of the prerequisite conditions.
These conditions, emanating from each of the five different layers, acting in concert and constructively reinforcing each other, would move us closer to a reality of World Peace.”
Boundary Conditions
“Simulations of boundary conditions brought about by setting the combination of values in sliders to some extreme, yield the overall bounds within which World Peace may exist:
Minimum Development + Minimum Organization, refers to the situation where all sliders from both sets of sources of development, are placed at the extreme left. In this situation the innovation sliders all hold a value of ‘-10’ suggesting that innovation is driven by selfish, egoistic, short-sighted, and even dark motives. The integrity of development, that is, the organized carrying forward of these sources into the realms of culture, ecosystems, cellular, and country-level realms are all at ‘0’, signifying in fact no organization. In such a scenario respective regional development across any region, and resultant world peace are mildly negative.
Minimum Development + Maximum Organization, refers to the situation where the innovation-based sliders are at ‘-10’, implying that innovation is again driven by selfish, egoistic, short-sighted, and even dark motives. On the other hand, with maximum organization, that is, with the integrity of development sliders all to the right, implying a willed and conscious development of the extreme negative sources of innovation, as can be seen, world peace drops to vastly negative values. In other words, the world will progressively deteriorate into a dismal situation.
Maximum Development + Minimum Organization, refers to the situation where the sources of innovation are all placed at ‘+10’, that is, the maximum possible for each source so that there is a balanced development at the individual level. On the other hand, the level of organization, or the integrity of development is at ‘0’ for each possibility so that there is effectively no carry forward of any of the positive change at the level of the individual. As can be seen in such a situation respective regional development across any region, and resultant world peace are mildly positive.
Maximum Development + Maximum Organization, depicts the extreme positive boundary possible, were both sets of sliders to be pushed to the maximum positive values, so that the innovation sliders would all have values of ‘+10’ and the integrity of development sliders would all have a value of ‘+1’ or 100%. In this situation the positive development occurring at the level of the individual is pushed forward into each of the layers in an organized way, perhaps leveraging an array of appropriate technologies. As a result, cultural framing is such that there is both a balanced development across all four sources of innovation and an openness to unique individual or organizational creativity. At the same time all ecosystems are systematically developed creating powerful nature-based containers at the local-level. Cellular health, at the base of all human, plant, and animal possibility is also balanced, likely based on the right mix of natural and human-made technologies. Finally, country-development also proceeds in such a manner that there is unique development driven by a country’s own genius. In such a situation, as can be seen, world peace will progressively become vastly positive.”
Four Depictions of World Peace
“While typical scenarios fall between the realities set up by extreme boundary conditions, a significant trend occurs as more possibility is mobilized along the quaternary bases:
1. With only one of the quaternary bases active, whether knowledge, or power, or service, or harmony, even with positive carry-forward organization capacity so that cellular-integrity, cultural-integrity, ecosystem-integrity, and country-level-integrity are upheld, world peace will still only stumble along in a mildly negative way.
2. With any two of the quaternary bases active, and given higher carry-forward organizational integrity, world peace will fluctuate between mildly negative and mildly positive values over the years.
3. With any three of the quaternary bases active, and given higher carry-forward organizational integrity, world peace will tend to increase by some multiple of ten, over the course of twenty years.
4. With all four quaternary bases active, and given higher carry-forward organizational integrity, world peace will tend toward exponential positive growth toward the end of twenty years.”
“It is to be noted that the finding that there appears to be exponential growth in world peace with full quaternary activation across the quintuple-layered system, is in line with the researched trend of similarly massive increases in innovation witnessed as systems switch from a physical to a chemical to a biological complexity, which also exhibits a far more organized bases and expression of fourfoldness.”
Dedication
“This paper is dedicated to the late Tony Hsieh. He was formerly CEO of Zappos and I had worked closely with him. Following his retirement from Zappos and prior to his unexpected passing he was interested in pursuing World Peace. As I listened to him speak about it, it struck me that there were three important pieces to his vision of World Peace. First, there would be deep connection between individual people and collectivities. Second, there would be a deep connection with Nature. Third, there would be a sense of timelessness. The more I thought about World Peace and the three pieces in Tony’s vision, the more complex the whole endeavour seemed to be. This paper and the related simulation were my rendering of the necessary conditions to create World Peace. Were these conditions to be realized, the three pieces would have a higher probability of coming into being.”
Backup Youtube Presentation
I did create a 17-minute backup presentation prior to the actual presentation in case of technical issues. Note that I was in East Texas last week and had to connect online to Nile University in Egypt where the Conference was being coordinated:
